NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

000
FXUS61 KGYX 140103 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
803 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold offshore overnight and will drift off to
the east on Friday. A weak frontal boundary will cross the
region Friday night followed by high pressure on Saturday. High
pressure will crest over the region Saturday night and will
shift east on Sunday as low pressure passes to the south. A cold
front will approach from the west Sunday night and will slowly
cross the area on Monday. A strong northwest flow will set up
across the region Monday night through Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
8 PM Update... Temperatures were adjusted for clouds moving in
from the SW. Areas under the clouds will cool slower while areas
outside the cloud deck should continue to tumble before
stabilizing. Weak warm advection will continue to move northeast
as ridging builds in. A few flurries are possible over far
southern NH but in general the atmospheric column is still very
dry and will take a while to moisten.


425 PM Update... Made a few changes to the temperature database
for overnight lows.


Previous discussion...
Clouds continue to edge in from the southwest this afternoon as
a weak disturbance passes to the south of the region. Very dry
air mass in place over the region is inhibiting northeast
progress of this moisture but expect clouds to gradually
increase across the region overnight. Cloud cover will help to
keep temperatures up overnight but still looking at lows well
below normal. Lows across most of the region will bottom out
between 5 and 15 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will drift off to the east on Friday with return
flow bringing warmer air back into the region. Along with the
warmer air will be a fair amount of clouds especially in
southern zones. Weak frontal boundary approaching from the west
will add to clouds in northwest zones during the afternoon and
may bring a few snow showers into the mountains towards evening.
Highs on Friday will generally range through the 30s.

Frontal boundary will cross the region Friday night with some
light snow or mixed precipitation in the north and rain or mixed
precip in the south. Only looking for light and spotty QPF with
this system with most of that in the north. Lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the overall pattern across the lower 48 will remain active
during the extended period, it looks like any big storms will
stay away from our region.

Low pressure continues to be expected to track south of our
forecast area on Saturday. This could mean some light/barely
measurable precip across southern zones, but most of the region
will remain dry. The next southern stream wave moves off the Mid
Atlc coast on Sunday and should spawn a strong SFC low well to
our east as a northern stream short wave trough merges with the
system. At this time, 12z deterministic runs continue to agree
that any phase will be too late...leaving the forecast area dry.
We`ll continue to monitor trends, however changes are lowering
that we see any sort of major impacts. We are however
forecasting snow showers Sunday night through Monday night as
the northern stream trough amplifies overhead. This could mean a
few inches of snow in the mountains. Otherwise, becoming windy
and cold Monday and lasting through Tuesday. High pressure then
builds in midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight Friday with areas of MVFR ceilings in
the south. VFR Friday night with areas MVFR ceilings/vsby in the
north.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected Saturday through Tuesday
with pockets of MVFR possible in showery precipitation Sunday
night through Monday night, mainly in the mountains. Gusty NW
winds are expected on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely with gales possible on the
ocean waters Monday night and Tuesday, with SCA conditions
in the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Sinsabaugh
LONG TERM...Ekster

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion