NWS Forecast Discussion

For Fremont, NH

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221426
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
926 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track southeast of the region today,
bringing a period of mostly rain to the area. A changeover to
snow before ending will be found in the mountains. This low
will pull a cold front across the area this evening.
Thanksgiving will mainly sunny but chilly, with a warming trend
Friday into Saturday. Another cold front crosses the area on
Sunday and could bring some rain or snow showers, with another
blast of cold air expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...HAve tweaked a few things in the forecast, mostly
dealing with p-type this AM, but some adjustment to temps later
today as well. While I did not remove FZRA, I did back it off
somewhat to only include the sheltered valley regions that are
currently below freezing. I think the chc is very limited, and
even if any place does see FZRA it will be very short-lived. as
the precip will mix down warmer air. Also, some of these colder
spots could actually see precip start as as snow instead FZRA,
with colder air loft across the NW zones, and it slowly shifting
east this morning. Otherwise look for the rain to continue
moving in from the S and shifting east along the coastal plain
this morning into early afternoon. It should end from SW to NE
later today, first in srn NH around mid-afternoon, and by early
evening in the ern zones around the mid-coast and the Penobscot
valley.

Previously...Input latest obs data and made a few adjustments
to lower temps for next few hours. Clouds have overspread the
area and the two areas of rain are now approaching, one from the
west associated with the cold front and the other from the
south associated with the developing offshore system. Temps
rather cold and below freezing over most areas at this time but
should warm to above freezing before any onset of rain. Can`t
rule out a few pockets of light freezing rain briefly at the
onset over the mountains and a few other inland locations mid
morning. Any pockets of freezing rain will quickly come to an
end by late morning as surface temps warm well above freezing.


A fast moving upper trof with an associated cold front will
approach from the Great Lakes today. Ahead of this trof a warm
moist south to southwest flow will develop. Overrunning light
rain will develop by later this morning ahead of the trof and
may even see a brief mix at the onset in the mountains due to
the initial cold morning temps. A weak wave will develop
southeast of New England and may enhance some of the
precipitation along the immediate coast this afternoon. Qpf
amounts from this system will be light...generally less than a
quarter inch for most areas except .50-.75 inches along the
immediate coastal areas due to the developing offshore system.
During the mid to late afternoon hours enough cold air may make
its way into the mountains to change any precipitation to snow
showers before ending in those areas. High temps will be
generally in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The trof and associated cold front moves rapidly offshore this
evening bringing an end to the precipitation over southern and
coastal areas, a brief mix may occur before ending. Much colder
temps will follow behind the front overnight with morning lows
expected to dip in the teens in the mountains and 20s elsewhere.


High pressure builds across the region Thursday with mostly
sunny skies but cold temps with highs expected to be in the 30s
except lower 40s along the coast and southeast NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weather pattern will remain at a fast clip through the
extended despite partial blocking downstream.  Thanksgiving
night clouds will be on the increase as the 5H closed low over
eastern Canada pivots ENE with time. Snow showers will be
possible near the international border overnight as a backdoor
front moves through. This will push cooler and drier air into
New England. Despite a chilly start, SW winds later in the day
should result in highs ranging from the mid 30s north to mid to
upper 40s along the coast.

Friday night will be chilly with clouds still hanging on over
the higher terrain. As one upper low moves towards Greenland
another will swing south to take its place. This system will be
more meridional and will trigger snow and rain showers through
the weekend. The changeover to snow will be elevation-based for
the most part. Relatively little moisture will be available and
only light QPF is expected. The region will be in the warm
sector for much of Saturday, and downsloping winds will make for
warm temperatures with many spots in the 50s Saturday. Upper
30s to mid 40s are more likely Sunday.

Behind the weekend system temperatures will drop again towards
more normal values. More zonal flow aloft and high pressure at
the surface will make for a quiet beginning to the work week.
Additional showers are likely for next Tuesday/Wednesday as we
become more engaged in fast southwest flow. Again we could see
some very warm temperatures- in the 40s and 50s for highs
areawide- as northern New England stays locked in the warm
sector.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions lowering to IFR later this morning and
afternoon across the area. Conditions improve to VFR behind the
frontal passage by later this evening. VFR conditions Thu and
Thu night.


Long Term...Some locations may see periods of MVFR conditions in
SHSN/SHRA Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A SCA will continue over the eastern outer waters
for seas this morning and then later today through Thu for gusty
winds and seas. For the outer waters area south and east of
Portland winds and seas will increase to SCA conditions later
today through Thursday. Over the bays conditions should remain
below SCA conditions through Thu.

Long Term...Both Saturday and Sunday will see periods of winds
reaching or exceeding SCA criteria, although these times may not
be adjacent temporally.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Marine
SHORT TERM...Marine
LONG TERM...Hanes
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion